The Week Ahead: Retail Sales and FOMC Minutes
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Economists are expecting a quiet week despite a handful of market-moving reports. Markets will receive FOMC minutes from the April monetary policy meeting, April PPI, home price index and existing homes sales.
Guy LaBas, fixed income strategist from Janney Montgomery Scott, said he will be looking at the FOMC minutes to look for any discussion regarding talk about removing the "downside risk comment."
"Is removing that statement a true way of signalling an end to the easing, or is the Fed trying to create more flexibility?" he said.
LaBas said he is still expecting the Fed to cut 25 basis points either in June or August. He added a lot of data will be released prior to the next FOMC meeting, which could lead to a cut by the Fed.
"My outlook on the economic growth in the U.S. is relatively dim. I think the Fed will continue to act on those risks, perhaps not as aggressively as they have in the past," he said.
While the FOMC minutes will garner market attention, Paul Mendelson, chief investment strategist from Windham Financial, said markets will also pay attention to the expiration of oil contracts on Tuesday.
"With crude oil prices pushing to new highs, the question is: is it the expiration contributing to this or is it the fear that China is going to have to import more diesel fuel because some of their hydro electrical facilities were damaged? I'm not sure I have that answer," he said.
"The sky just seems to be the limit for oil prices right now," he said.
Looking at the rest of the data for the week, Mendelson said PPI will be anti-climactic and that existing home sales will get some attention. But even if the data comes in better than expected, the trend continues to show weakness in the housing sector, he said.
All times in EDT
Monday:
Canadian markets will be closed due to Victoria Day, and it will be a light day in the U.S. as well. April's leading indicators will be released, which are expected to decline 0.1% following March's +0.1% rise.
10:00 US Leading Indicators April Exp: -0.1% Prior: +0.1%
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $25 B 3-Month Bills
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $23 B 6-Month Bills
Tuesday:
Markets will receive U.S. PPI data for April. The annualized core index excluding food and energy is expected to rise 2.9% following a 2.7% gain in March. The monthly data is expected to rise 0.2%, in line with last month's rise. The annualized headline index is expected to show a 6.8% rise, down from March's 6.9% increase.
Fed Vice-Chairman Donald Kohn will speak on the economy at an event in New Orleans.
8:30 Fed's Kohn to Speak on the economy in New Orleans
8:30 US Producer Price Index (M/M) April Exp: +0.4% Prior: +1.1%
8:30 CA International Securities Transactions March Exp: C$1.500 Prior: C$3.800
8:30 CA Wholesale Sales (M/M) March Exp: +0.5% Prior: -1.8%
8:30 US PPI Ex Food & Energy (M/M) April Exp: +0.2% Prior: +0.2%
8:30 US Producer Price Index (Y/Y) April Exp: +6.8% Prior: +6.9%
8:30 US PPI Ex Food & Energy (Y/Y) April Exp: +2.9% Prior: +2.7%
9:00 US Fed Vice Chairman Kohn Speaks on Economy in New Orleans
10:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism May Exp: 38 Prior: 39.2
13:00 US Treasury to Sell 4-Week Bills
17:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence 18-May Prior: -47
Wednesday:
The focus will be on Canada with the release of April's CPI report. The headline and core index are expected to come in at 1.4% which is below the Bank of Canada's inflation target of 2%. The core monthly rate is expected to continue its trend for a 0.2% increase.
7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 16-May Prior: +2.9%
7:00 CA Consumer Price Index (M/M) April Exp: +0.4% Prior: +0.4%
7:00 CA Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) April Exp: +1.4% Prior: +1.4%
7:00 CA Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (M/M) April Exp: +0.2% Prior: +0.2%
7:00 CA Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (Y/Y) April Exp: +1.4% Prior: +1.3%
8:30 CA Leading Indicators (M/M) April Exp: +0.1% Prior: 0.0%
10:30 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Week ending May 16 Prior: +176K
10:30 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Week ending May 16 Prior: -1715K
10:30 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Week ending May 16 Prior: +1338K
10:30 US DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization Week ending May 16 Prior: +1.63%
14:00 US Fed Releases Minutes, Forecasts from April 29-30 Meeting
Thursday:
The focus will once again be on Canada with the release of March retail sales, which are expected to increase 0.4% following February's decline of 0.7%. Core sales excluding autos are expected to rise 0.3% following the prior decline of 0.3%.
In the U.S., markets will receive the March house price index report, which rose 0.6% in February. The first-quarter data is expected to show a 1.3% decline following a previous increase of 0.1%.
8:30 CA Retail Sales (M/M) March Exp: 0.4% Prior: -0.7%
8:30 CA Retail Sales Less Autos (M/M) March Exp: +0.3% Prior: -0.3%
8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Week ending May 17 Exp: +373K Prior: +371K
8:30 US Continuing Claims Week ending May 10 Prior: 3060K
9:15 US Fed's Kroszner Speaks to State Banking Regulators in Florida
10:00 US House Price Index (M/M) March Prior: +0.6%
10:00 US House Price Index Quarterly 1Q Exp: -1.3% Prior: +0.1%
10:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 16-May Prior: +93
Friday:
The week ends with U.S. existing homes sales for April, which are expected to come in at 4.85 million, down from March's reading of 4.93 million.
10:00 US Existing Home Sales April Exp: 4.85M Prior: 4.93M
10:00 US Existing Home Sales (M/M) April Exp: -1.6% Prior: -2.0%
10:30 CA Canadian Money Supply April
12:00 EU Germany's Glos Speaks in Frankfurt
By Neils Christensen and edited by Nancy Girgis
©CEP News Ltd. 2008
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